Hire Hopes

Hire Hopes
Jun 14th 2011, 16:13 by The Economist

Which countries are most optimistic about hiring?

THE outlook for employment in the third quarter of this year is positive in 35 of the 39 countries and territories covered by Manpower, an employment-services firm. The net balance of employers expecting to increase the size of their workforces in the next three months is highest in India and Brazil, at 47 and 37 percentage points respectively. In Italy and Spain employers have been mostly negative about job prospects since early 2008, and their outlook is getting gloomier. By contrast, German and Canadian companies have seen a quick recovery, and report their most positive hiring intentions since the downturn. Even with the opening of its borders to the European Union’s eastern workers in May, Germany's unemployment has been falling sharply. The central bank recently referred to its “extremely favourable labour market developments”.

shaun39 wrote:
What a depressing outlook - especially for Spain, with unemployment already touching on 21%.

Spain has open access to the whole of the EU market, has excellent assets and a well educated/ skilled workforce.

Why can't businesses employ Spain's labor and capital assets? Why do Spaniards not seek employment in Germany, the Netherlands, Austria or Sweden?

Depressed domestic demand doesn't explain the magnitude of Spanish unemployment.

While a combination factors are clearly in play, something is obviously in direct competition with employment: generous welfare payments, subsidized but badly located housing (whether through government or with parents, etc) and black market activity.

Possible solutions: cut benefits to a level significantly below an average starting salary. End all subsidies tied to specific accommodation. Cut all benefit payments to anybody living with (non-disabled) parents.

Do the above: people will move to parts of the EU with better employment prospects; people will leave their parents' homes to seek employment in parts of Spain with better employment prospects; people will accept lower paying jobs as an alternative to idleness.

Spain could go even further: it could replace all benefits (other than health, pensions and disability) with a right to 40 hours of work a week (at 4 euros/ hour).

Other required measures: deregulate employment contracts; cut corporate taxes and local business taxes; get tough on organized crime (it would help if consumption and supply of drugs were entirely legalized; the income tax system were simplified; and there were better use of modern information systems for tracking personal and business transactions).

The deficit would disappear; unemployment would collapse; exports would soar; standards of living would fall (in the short term); business investment would recover; productivity would resume an upwards trend (after the initial hit from incorporating less skilled workers); standards of living would resume an upwards trajectory.

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Samkaie wrote: Jun 14th 2011 6:32 GMT
@Calm Incence,

Just out of curiosity,what was your major? And where are you from?
I hope you wouldn't find this personal.

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Ed (Brazil) wrote: Jun 14th 2011 7:49 GMT
All countries in this chart can survave going bellow zero for some time, except one: China.

They don't let us, nor their people, to see it on TV, but protests are there... China is a gun powder barrel whose owner has to keep on moving away from the fire that get closer everyday.

Italy and Spain, don't you think the only way you will go back in black is to stop the easy short term solutions and leave the Euro ?

"The Economist", where is Brazil ? I bet Brazil is between Canada gemany and China. If its above, its a buble...

Britain, you are Japan tomorrow. Actuallly, old, earthquake tsunami hit Japan generated much more jobs than you !

India, you are the only hope the World has for the decade that is beggining. Chinese don't play fair with their currency, so the world will face them sometime in the near future. But in order to do that, the world needs to find a replacement. You are the one. Hope you accept the invitation. Otherwise, we might get ready for a period of constant financial turmoil...

"The age of leverage". It will end with unimaginable defaults (not now), some ex-rich countries (Argentina is the worst of examples - in 1900 they had the world's 5th GDP per person). US is no longer the Rome of economics, and the question is, will it be able to sustain its position as the Rome of military ?

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Escha wrote: Jun 14th 2011 8:07 GMT
Apart from Brazil's data another important information is missing: The evolution of the workforce is quite different: shrinking populations in Japan and Germany make it increasingly difficult to hire enough skilled workers, i.e. engineers. However, immigration - as suggested by shaun39 - is not an easy solution, not least because of language difficulties. Have you ever tried to learn German (not to mention Japanese) to a level required by employers? In contrast growing populations in India, China and the US require much greater job growth.

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vmoriz wrote: Jun 14th 2011 10:00 GMT
@shaun39 I liked your macro review, and liked the proposals you made. I'm open to move to countries like Germany, Sweden or Austria. The question is, apart from all the good forecasts those countries report about labour market, are there companies really interested in hiring spaniards? At least from my experience it is not so easy, with the skills and seniority I'm looking for.

Feel free to connect via linkedIn:

http://linkd.in/connect2vfernandez

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russelbertrand wrote: Jun 14th 2011 10:00 GMT
Escha wrote "In contrast growing populations in India, China and the US require much greater job growth."

US is shrinking not growing i.e. baby boomers and greatest generation. Also, China has to many old people and to few young workers problem caused by mandatory 1 child laws. Which it seems most US families now practice.

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An Drew wrote: Jun 14th 2011 10:12 GMT
Britain's Confidence Fairy seems to be doing pretty well.

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Murilo Assis wrote: Jun 14th 2011 10:19 GMT
In Brazil there is a sharp shortage of engineers, technicians, researchers in the following areas: bulding, petrochemical, IT.

I strongly suggest those people that are unenployed in Europe/USA to have closer look in Brazil.

I am brazilian and according to some news I have lately read in newspapers and TV, some projects have been delayed due to lack of people with skills on the a.m. fields.

Due to Olimpic Games, World Cup, Pre-salt layer, the booming areas are as follow: Petrol (pre-salt layer), Buldings (house, dam, airports, ports, ethanol mills, agricultural research, transport and so on...)

For further information Google companies like: PETROBRÁS, EMBRAER, Norberto Odebrecht, EMBRAPA, CAMARGO CORREA, COSAN, COPERSUCAR (all World Class companies).

Needless to say it is necessary you guys know to communicate in portuguese or at least spanish as second language.

Good Luck you!

Murilo Assis

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Steve Thompson wrote: Jun 14th 2011 10:23 GMT
It's interesting to see that the prospects in for employment in the United States are on a very modest uptrend. That said, it is also interesting to note that the wages paid for many jobs in America have not grown in real terms for decades. Here's an article that shows how little incomes have risen in real terms in America over the past 30 years:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/02/working-in-america-once-aga...

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Cloudwarrior wrote: Jun 14th 2011 10:25 GMT
I sure wish people would learn the difference between an ageing population and a shrinking population.

@(Ed) Brazil
"Britain, you are Japan tomorrow. Actually, old"

Two totally different countries other than the fact they are island kingdoms. Yes, Japan's population is going to start shrinking - it hasn't yet though but almost any day now. It's population is estimated to shrink by over 30 million in the next 40 years - not just through a low birthrate but pretty much zero immigration. It is ageing at a rapid rate.

Britain on the other hand, whilst ageing is expected to have an extra 10 million people in the same time.

Ageing yes, shrinking no! A very shallow comparison.

@russelbertrand
"US is shrinking not growing i.e. baby boomers and greatest generation. Also, China has to many old people and to few young workers problem caused by mandatory 1 child laws. Which it seems most US families now practice."

Again, the US population is NOT shrinking. Whilst it is getting older, it is not ageing at anywhere near the pace of other countries, especially places like Japan, South Korea and China.

It's population is expected to grow by about a third in the next 40 years to over 440 million. Hardly shrinking now. Please find me a rich, developed country that is expected to grow by nearly 30%.

As for China, that is a very shallow analysis of the country's population. At this stage, China does not have too many old people, though it is lacking in younger people.

But for at least the next five years, China will enjoy the economic dividend of having it's largest working age cohort ever. However, from about 2015 even this cohort will start to rapidly shrink and THEN China will have the burden of having too many old people. (for those that disagree on my claim, please don't attack the sentiment but attack the facts - they are there provided by the Chinese government for all to see).

APSCU on Gainful Employment: Trust but Verify

For more information:
Mary Gotschall Bob Cohen
202-336-6744 202-336-6836
mary.gotschall@apscu.org bob.cohen@apscu.org

APSCU on Gainful Employment: Trust but Verify
Question about Fundamental Legal Authority Remains
WASHINGTON, DC – June 1, 2011 – The Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities issued the following statement in response to the Department of Education’s release of the gainful employment rule:
We remain very concerned that the gainful employment regulation, while reflecting the fact that the Department has listened to the sector and made changes to its initial proposal, is still using the same ill-advised metric approach to this matter and is clearly outside of its statutory authority. Notwithstanding the changes, the real question is how the regulation will impact students, particularly non-traditional students served by our institutions. We will not know the answer to that until we have had the opportunity to run an independent analysis of the Department’s metric. Our concern is that the regulation will still penalize programs with great outcomes while allowing under-performing programs to continue. We need to trust but verify the impact of the new regulation. The APSCU Board will review the regulation’s impact on students carefully before deciding its next steps.
About APSCU
The Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities is a voluntary membership organization of accredited, private postsecondary schools, institutes, colleges and universities that provide career-specific educational programs. APSCU has more than 1,900 members that educate and support approximately two million students each year for employment in over 200 occupational fields. APSCU member institutions provide the full range of higher education programs: Master's and doctoral degree programs, two- and four-year associate and baccalaureate degree programs, and short-term certificate and diploma programs. Visit APSCU at www.apscu.org. On September 22, 2010, APSCU changed its name from the Career College Association.